The raw footage of the little girl's infamous temper can be seen in YouTube (Hat tip to Uniffors.com)
Assperon's appointment to the Peace portfolio was suspect way back. I had this crazy hunch that something sinister was in the works, what with this war monger and his girlfriend trying to perpetrate their giyera-giyerahan using the poor foot soldiers as their sacrificial lambs. Not to mention the Ass was then joining Gen. Boogie Mendoza, a former Razon protege, and an "acclaimed anti-terrorist expert" (it just happened that a fire of suspicious origin, "suspicious" at least to the instinctive Policewoman Aida Fariscal, gave away "Operation Bojinka" in an Al-Qaeda bomb-making makeshift lab in Ermita leading to the arrests of Murad and '93 WTC Bomber Youzef).
On the other side of the fence, a separatist front of freedom fighters on Mondays, Abu Sayyaf kidnappers on Tuesdays, Jemaah Islamiya trainees on Wednesdays, lost command on Thursdays, devout Muslims on Fridays, and plain farmers and merchants on weekends. Overseen by their provisions suppliers from Malaysia.
Now what do we have? A highly volatile cocktail made up of an administration struggling for perpetual survival, high-profile GWOT freaks looking for an opportunity to expand their military control and a wayward army of bandits all of them intelligent enough to know that peace was doomed in the first place but insist that they might just be able to pull it through.
No, Gloria didn't plan to dismember the country via the MOA-AD, she knows it's unconstitutional, luckily, the legit opposition saw through her, she even had to use her allies to petition for a TRO which her SC appointees readily obliged to. She was expecting widespread retaliation but the MILF hierarchy surprisingly held back, her emergency rule cannot be imposed! No martial law, no chacha either. Doom! The Ass' loyal generals immediately had to scramble for the "Lost Commanders" Kato and Bravo who have been burning villages left and right in the past yet no sincere effort to bring them to justice was ever taken (You now have an idea why Kabalu insists these commanders were not ordered by MILF to do so). They needed them to jump start this stage of the war to put Plan B into action. Funny but Eid Kabalu hasn't announced an all-out offensive yet. Nor has Puno and Teodoro. Who wants to really finish the war after all? Even Misuari's MNLF are now wearing their old uniforms to defend their own territory. Against whom? The gov't? MILF? Or the Lost Command?
Gloria's "Defend every inch of the territory" spiel was predictably looking for just the right moment to be announced so she blew her top after finding out her staff had not even prepared the teleprompter.
I suggest you stock up on the popcorn. I have not heard it in Beijing, maybe it was spoken in Mandarin, but this Mindanao spectacle, some call it moro-moro, is about to be officially opened.
I got this from Newsbreak, click to view the large graphic image:
I was reading Manolo Quezon's latest post in Current: "Exhibit A & Exhibit B" wherein he still linked my preceeding post, "Bomb? What Bomb?", also in this blog and I was later pointed to Joey Allarilla's @play blog also in Inquirer's Blogs which had this very cool Animated 3D Walk-through of the Glorietta basement I saw in the news last night.
Pictures (Courtesy of Inquirer.net): 1. The delivery bay after the blast; 2. A view of the atrium damage (Note the trap door leading to the basement); 3. The curved beam; 4. The diesel tank's top
Main Post:
Just as the PNP investigators looked comfortable with the gas-mixture theory based on the stories carried by media the past days, Ayala comes out with its own findings and the whole investigation is back to square one.
What the investigating team thought was a solid ground that their conclusions can stand on are, at the very least, shaky and could come down crumbling anytime.
The Israeli "expert"
First, David Nevo, the Israeli security contractor whom PNP had called a "security and anti-terror expert" due to his being a retired police chief superintendent and "over 25 years of experience in security and anti-terror management" wouldn't file a report because he was there merely as an "independent observer". And truly so, he had one look at the basement and his VISUAL inspection was enough for him to conclude it was a gas blast.
Looking at his statements, Nevo, the managing director of Coral Integrated Security Systems Ltd (Coraliss) merely mouthed the lines that gas blast theory proponents would have wanted him to say and then they planed him back to Israel. Nothing he said in the interview could be considered crucial, merely vague descriptions of a methane explosion I doubt he has even experienced investigating one like it. But if it were a terrorist bomb, I would definitely seek his wisdom, coming from probably the "most bombed" country in the world.
The Australian Forensic Police's report
Next, the PNP's resource persons from the Australian Forensic Police did prepare a 13-page report but again, it was inconclusive as to the source of the blast. What they did say was that there were several "potential sources" like sulphur dioxide, methane, ammonia and diesel fumes. They also confirmed my analysis posted in my last post that the diesel inside the tank could not have caused it. They said, "there was insufficient damage to the tank to indicate it as being the source of the explosion". Phil. Daily Inquirer quoted the report:
" 'It is possible that the ignition source was remote from the area of greatest fuel build-up. From the detailed scene examination, physical evidence, blast damage effects, and background information provided, it appears the explosion has occurred in the basement of Glorietta 2 as a result of an explosive fuel-air mixture being initiated by unknown means,' the report also showed."
"To fully determine the cause of the blast, Australian experts also advised its counterparts to: examine the floor area of basement to determine the extent of the damage; engage independent appropriate engineers/experts to examine machinery including septic pump, exhaust system, diesel tank, control panel switches and pumps; examine CCTV footage; examine maintenance records of Glorietta 2; ensure that all relevant witness statements would be collected and evaluated for significant information; examine post-mortem reports, including location of deceased, among others."
What they are actually telling the PNP is, "Get your asses in there and find the evidence!" The Australians, like the Israeli, however, were leaning towards the gas-blast theory and ruled out bombing due to the absence of traces of "bomb parts". We all know that the female chemist from the PNP Crime Lab announced in front of the National Security Council in Camp Crame that RDX or Royal Demolition Explosive, the main component of cyclotrimethylene-trinitramine (C3H6N6O6) or C-4, was found during the swab tests conducted in the same day of the blast. When the Aussies mentioned "bomb parts" I would assume they meant those other than RDX.
So for the whole of last week, the PNP had been saying they have reached a conclusion based on their investigations, as CONFIRMED by the foreign experts and even announced that they will be filing their report on November 6 because they were confident they were convincing enough they had the concurrence of foreigners. They were zeroing in on methane since the Australians have debunked the possiblity of the diesel tank causing the havoc.
Ayala's experts
Now, over the weekend, the killjoy Jimmy Ayala came out with his own experts: Dr. Stephen Etheridge, the biogas expert from the UK's Science Council and Burgoynes, a forensic prober/consultancy and conducted a presscon at the Intercon Hotel. Aided by an AV presentation, Ayala refutes the last plausible theory the PNP seemed ready to blame on them and charge them with.
Dr. Etheridge proved many of my suspicions and arguments right. One, that the sewage pit could not have produced the amount of methane gas needed to cause that kind of damage to Glorietta 2. Aquaeous sewage does not produce methane in the same volume as a dewatered sludge tank which has greater concentrations of fecal solids.
As I also mentioned in my post, a gas leak would have been easily detected as hydrogen sulfide is a highly-toxic gas and emitted foul odor that should have been noticed by Ayala maintenance people, the guards, stall owners (Starbucks, with a few smoker's tables outside, I believe, is just nextdoor) or even just by passers-by. This was consistent, too, with Dr. Etheridge's report.
He also concurred with my argument that the area could have been well ventilated since there was a diesel generator in the room.
My early hunch against the methane theory actually started when the PNP announced the blast was the product of a gas mixture accumulated in the basement, just A DAY after the NSC presscon where cops reported RDX was found. In the process, they forgot that they said they cannot yet enter the basement as it was flooded and smelled like crap. If that were so, how did they arrive at such a conclusion? Cuz the caucasians say so?
But another superior human being (yes, I meant caucasian) has refuted the diesel + methane cause of the blast more convincingly.
My suggestion in Ellen's blog that inspecting the deformed reinforcement bars encased in concrete as to bend direction and close inspection at the points of fracture will tell the blast direction and magnitude of the blast wave, was apparently done by Ayala's experts and they concluded that these were "consistent with the damage usually created by a bomb."
Ayala and Dr. Etheridge likewise corrected many wrong impressions, like that of the police's, that the sewage pit was a septic tank, similar to what our houses have. It was, after all, simply a transfer tank that automatically pumps out to the city sewers once a certain level is reached. (Whaaat? I thought large establishments like Glorietta or the whole Ayala Center are supposed to have Sewage Treatment Plants? Hmmm...) The transfer pit is no bigger than a 2-door fridge standing 6'6" tall. According to Ayala, and as shown in their presentation, the 1.5 x 1.2 x 2.25mtrs pit pumps out sewage 2 to 3 times daily.
No way can methane-producing organisms create enough volatile gas to even cook rice! Setting aside the possibility that the "city sewer" or a central sewage system serving the whole Ayala Center was responsible for leaking methane back into the Ayala basement, I AM 100% CONVINCED it was NOT a methane gas explosion! If the converse were true, the ball now lies in Mayor Binay's court, which could explain why Binay now wants an independent investigation.
Further, Dr. Etheridge explained, "You need a tank about 3 to 5 times larger than the one that is there. These tanks are emptied out and they are exposed to oxygen. The area is also well-ventilated".
Other important details coming from the Ayala experts:
-Methane, one of two components of biogas, could not have been produced since it takes microorganisms eight to 10 days to multiply to sufficient quantities. The water in the basement sump pits was discharged to the city sewers "several times a day". (That is new.)
-The accumulation of biogas, which is 20 percent less dense than air, was unlikely “because it would have vented via the large open stairwell leading to the delivery bay that is open to the street". (I've said so.)
-It is unlikely that a gas explosion in the basement would have caused the severe damage observed in the loading bay area because at the time of the incident, the loading bay was open to the street. (Just as I had figured)
-The diesel tank suffered only "minor secondary damage" with its roof deforming and forming a weld, which is "entirely consistent with it having been caused as the result of the primary explosion," thus overpressure in the diesel tank "could not have caused the damage". (Didn't I say that?)
-Upon testing by a major oil company, the "flash point" - or the temperature required for the combustion of vapor from a liquid - of the diesel fuel in the day tank was found to be normal at 76 degrees Celsius and within specification. Ayala also showed a three-dimensional rendering of the basement where the blast was believed to have originated, and pointed out the locations of the two sump pits in one corner and the diesel tank a few meters away. (It is consistent with my theory.)
-Ayala said the second pump was for "backup, in case the main pump malfunctioned". (I believe this is standard.)
-The experts also said that the blast moved 14 meters of the mall's structure. The movement, they said, is equivalent to 270 tons of force or the lifting of 270 vehicles, which is impossible if it was indeed a gas explosion. (I'd like to see the formulae and the computations!)
-The ALI president did not say if the ALI-commissioned team found bomb fragments at the blast site. (Cleaned?)
-"We could not say conclusively whether or not there is a bomb crater," Ayala said, adding that ALI's hired experts had said the twisting of steel reinforcements in the building was consistent with damage usually caused by a bomb. (I thought the stair well leading to the trap door at the lobby WAS a crater? How about the "hole" in PNP's Presentation 2?)
-NBI's Romulo Asis said the NBI probe was far from over because materials like electrical devices recently retrieved from the basement were still under analysis. (One funny thing here, they were checking the submersible pump if it created the spark that could have ignited methane gas, if it was SUBMERGED during operation, how could it ignite gas?)
-Emilio Tumbocon, president of Ayala Property Management Corp., (Ayala's in-house building management team) said, "The fuse box shown in the papers today is the fuse box of the old jack pump, which has already been decommissioned. It is not used anymore and was replaced by a new jack pump". "It wasn’t connected. That was a fuse box from old equipment," he said, adding that it was not near the diesel tank. (The pictures showed that.)
-Asked to comment on reports that the Philippine Bomb Data Center had discovered the center of the explosion and found a "curve" in a beam that may indicate a bomb, Ayala said: "We were at the site Sunday, and we observed the beam in question.” “We understand that authorities are looking at this very carefully and we would encourage them to continue this line of investigation," he said.
Trillanes' witness comes forward
A certain Ronald Ramos a.k.a. Abdul Rackham who claims to be a former member of Manila-based terror group Rajah Solaiman Movement to ABS-CBN's Jay Ruiz that he worked with a group of soldiers and civilians under National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales and pointed to the group as the ones responsible for the Glorietta Tragedy. According to the ABS-CBN report,
The release of the ALI-commissioned probe report came alongside the revelation made by a man who reportedly fed information to Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV regarding the government's alleged role in the blast."
"The witness identified himself as Ronald Ramos alias Abdul Rackham, a former member of the Manila-based terror group the Rajah Solaiman Movement."
"The witness told ABS-CBN News correspondent Jay Ruiz that he surrendered to the government and worked for a special operations group of National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales along with members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines-National Capital Region Command (AFP-NCRCom) from 2004-2006."
"He claimed that his job was to monitor a number of malls in Metro Manila, including the Glorietta shopping complex."
" 'Tinitignan ko ang security sa Glorietta, sabi ko sa report pinaka-mahina ang security sa Glorietta (I monitored the security of Glorietta and reported that it had the weakest),' Ramos said."
"While admitting he has no solid-proof evidence, Ramos is convinced the surveillance job is linked to the Glorietta blast."
" 'Sila 'yun... Para gumawa ng gulo (It’s them… to start chaos),' he added."
"Ramos also admitted that he monitored the movements of 34 activists. Three of the subjects, including Sherilyn Cadapan of the University of the Philippines, were eventually abducted."
" 'Ginawa ko, sinusundan ko siya mula eskwelahan hanggang bahay (I followed her from school to her home),' he said."
"Gonzales, meanwhile, denied Trillanes's allegations. The security adviser said he will no longer comment on the issue."
Conclusion
With the diesel theory satisfactorily disproved many times and now it appears the methane gas from the Glorietta sump pit theory is headed towards the same direction, the only remaining possibilitites left are:
-methane gas leaked into the basement by the city sewer or a central sewage system that serviced the cluster of buildings in the immediate surroundings;
-another non-nitrate based gas intentionally leaked into the basement and subsequently ignited ;
(NOTE: Please click on the "Comments" link below to view more and updated details from exchanges with commenters. Some are too long to rewrite here. Thanks - Tongue
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Original Post
Four days after. Nothing conclusive still. No suspects, no arrests. Not even the cause of explosion. They're floating a new spin: Diesel and/or methane probably did it. Aaah...
Diesel or bunker will not ignite, much more explode, without heat and/or high pressure. That is why you don't need to use spark plugs in diesel engines. Diesel engines instead use heaters that raise the air temperature in the combustion chamber. As the injector nozzle sprays atomized fuel into the chamber, the approaching piston increases the pressure in the fast-diminishing free space inside the cylinder. The increasing pressure produces more heat to vaporize the droplets of diesel to mix with the heated air and just as the piston reaches Top Dead Center in the compression stroke, rapid combustion (explosion) takes place in the chamber, the tremendous force pushes the piston down again (power stroke) to rotate the crankshaft one cycle. This are the second and third strokes of your typical four-stroke diesel engine. The other two are the intake and exhaust strokes.
Compression in the manner I described here is very difficult to recreate accidentally. It is a slow process requiring an almost perfectly sealed environment (like the engine's cylinder). That is also why diesel engines are slower than gasoline-fed ones. Compression bears a heavier load on the power components (pistons, rings, rods).
If the diesel tank, which by the way is almost always filled especially in applications such as malls and other establishments frequented by many people, did cause the huge explosion, it should have been blown beyond recognition. Generators used for critical applications such as Glorietta's are typically run with and without load weekly both automatically then manually for about fifteen minutes just to make sure the Genset (engine + alternator/dynamo w/ Auto-start/Auto-shutdown circuits) and the electrical controls (Automatic Transfer Switch, Paralleling Switchgear, etc.) will work in the event a real power interruption (brownout) does occur. It also ensures that the batteries are recharged regularly. Without batteries, generators are worthless. This regular process, called Plant Exercise, makes it imperative that the fuel tank/s are always filled to its upper limits. Meaning very little space for compression and combustion in the tank's upper chamber.
What did the pictures show? A fuel tank standing perfectly by itself, except for a small hole and with a portion of the top cover appearing to me as intentionally pried open. The tank did not appear to have "bloated" or puffed out as it should be if it had exploded from inside. The small hole? It looks to me like it was there all the time. Maybe a vent punched out by maintenance for pressure release. This is necessary especially if the fuel delivery pipes to the engine operate by gravity (think pressurized water tanks vs. gravity tanks).
Or it could have been used as inspection hole to check fuel level either visually or by using a dipstick. Some tanks usually have level indicators using a transparent plastic tubing stretched vertically outside with both ends connected to metal tubes welded at the top and bottom of the tank's side. The level outside is the same inside since liquids seek their own level. But since this type of indication is neither rigid nor durable, at some time maintenance people disable this and use the more reliable dipstick method.
Again, the metal plate that this hole was created in did not look dented in nor puffed out that would have indicated any explosion either coming directly from the top or from the inside, respectively.
I now also remember talking to military officers from the Electronics group called AFPCES some years back who wanted me to design and build diesel tanks thick enough to repel bullets. I was told the NPAs use AFPCES' tanks for target practice (including soldiers climbing their antenna masts) but when I asked how many have died in the explosions, I was told the bullets just punctured the tanks and at worst, it would deprive them of a week's supply of diesel but no explosions. Either I was watching too many cowboy movies at the time or totally ignorant to have asked that.
I need not discuss it if there was fire in the aftermath or if soot or black smoke or blue flame was present because judging from the condition of the tank alone and my discussions regarding diesel combustion, I'm amazed some dorks posing as investigators are still looking at the diesel tank angle.
Those who still are inclined to believe the spin that the blast was caused by diesel or bunker are, well, bonkers!
Now what about the sewage tank angle?
From what little I know about sewage treatment plants (I designed and installed electrical controls including semi-automation modules for, what do you know? A high-rise 5-star Hotel and a mall complex!), the Laguna Lake Development Authority (LLDA)- if your establishment spills a huge volume of effluent towards the Laguna Lake or any of its tributary rivers, or the DENR - if your sewers lead to floodways or esteros flowing to any of the seas in Luzon, sewage treatment plants (STPs) ARE required by either gov't offices before Environmental and Sanitation Permits are issued, thus construction permits are withheld in their absence. A mall the size of Glorietta, or the whole Makati Commercial Complex or Ayala Center as it is now called, IS required to operate a Sewage Treatment Plant.
Two possibilities, therefore. Either Glorietta has its own or it pumps its sewage into a central STP operated by Ayala Center. If not, then either LLDA or DENR did not do its job here. Or were bribed. In the late nineties, 2 or 3 malls/condos in the Ortigas-Shaw corridor were issued Cease and Desist Orders by LLDA because they were found pumping sewage straight to the city lines. They were heavily fined and closed temporarily until they constructed their own STPs. At least, that's what the papers said.
What does an STP do?
To simplify, it first screens solids out of the influent waste from the mall, breaks down into "digestible" size large sediments like a giant blender with many agitator blades at the bottom of the tank; then pumps all of it into an aeration tank where air produced by big fan blowers is pumped from under the sludge, making aerobic bacteria digest organic waste. The next tanks would separate liquid from the remaining sludge. Liquid undergoes chlorination before the effluent is released to the city sewers while the remaining sludge repeats the process. This is where methane gas is produced. In large quantities, it may be dangerous as 14% methane mixed with oxygen explodes when ignited. Some large STPs use the gas to heat and dissolve the sludge but in this size (Glorietta's) there is not enough methane produced to install a collector-burner stage. Abroad, it is common in city-size STPs but of the 3 private-owned medium-sized STPs I've worked on in the past, I have not seen one with a methane collector-burner stage, much less one that exploded.
It would be stupid likewise that Glorietta, or Ayala for that matter, would maintain a large septic vault holding raw sewage under one of its public buildings. They employ the finest architectural firms in the world to design their projects, any firm of that caliber would definitely not skip the basic requirements in their designs. So will sanitation and safety engineers, too. Even our houses' pozo negros have vent pipes with which to "breathe" out the gas. Further, Methane does not stay stable for long. It breaks down into Hydrogen Sulfide which is a very toxic gas. We haven't heard anyone die of gas poisoning in Glorietta prior to the incident, have we? Instead, what many witnesses and victims smelled was a gunpowder-like odor. Or in one victim's words, "amoy-paputok", which is characteristic of a C4 blast. A explosion caused by methane could be preceded or followed by flames and we haven't heard of any such thing in Glorietta. Let's take a look at the simplified chemical equation of burning methane in ordinary air:
CH4 + 2(O2 + 3.76N2) = 2H2O + CO2 + 2(3.76N2 + energy
where energy may be all or combination of Sound/Heat/Light/Shockwave
It is standard that explosion relief vents are constructed in STPs, more so one under a Generator room. The Generator Room itself, depending on the size and quantity of gensets, may have several exhaust fans to evacuate the hot air around the engines, the cooling system's radiators (or water pipes to the external cooling towers for large installations), and the exhaust mufflers. I will not accept any excuse that the generator room is a totally contained/enclosed one, meaning a sealed vault where the operators can die from fumes inhalation either from the fuel or the engine exhaust. It is therefore safe to conclude that the generator room was well ventilated. Blast waves and shock waves cannot be produced like that as in Glorietta (blasting through the flooring up to the 4th floor) if it was not a sealed container.
Now, a room that has many vents and openings, doors, windows, vents, etc. should have allowed the smell at least of the foul-odored sewage, or methane gas, or hydrogen sulfide (when methane breaks down) and it would have been detected earlier by Ayala personnel or reported by shoppers. Any reports? Nothing I'm sure.
That being the case, and all the foregoing arguments here from my raw experience and stock knowledge, all debunks either the methane or diesel theory or the combination of both.
Here's one link emailed to me, it used 9,000 liters of methane gas (about to fill up a tanker truck) and totally enclosed. Watching the resulting blast, you can estimate that it wont even be sufficient to rip a hole that large through the thick concrete floor slab and even send shock waves up to the building's ceilings. I doubt there was even that amount ( a tanker truck) of methane concentrated in the Glorietta sewage.
DILG's Marius Corpus rattling out that the mixture of of methane and diesel could have caused it, is of course, another attempt at cover-up.
These liars never stop, don't they. I bet the next day it will be spontaneous combustion!
Reading Gloria's Statements on the Glorietta Bombing
There had been calls to let the investigators do their job and avoid speculating now. But we know how the PNP Crime Lab works, (remember Jose Pidal's specimen signatures?) I'm not stupid enough to trust them. 18 hrs. into the investigation and they still can't identify the bomb type! It would be difficult to pin it on Muslim rebs because all evidence right now point to C4, a bomb available only to the AFP.
I had also wanted to keep an open mind, but I cannot think of any other group that would have benefited the most from it (the bombing) except Gloriaetta herself and her minions. Jemaah Islamiya bombers target only Westerners and their interests. The MILF is seating comfortably in the peace negotiation tables. Abu Sayyaf, they move only when the AFP allows them to. The reds do not have C4. Military adventurists? Of course not. Their enemy is well into the process of disintegration already, why alter the scenario? Only one suspect left.
No single person in the country today has innards built the way Gloriaetta’s are. What’s another 8 dead Pinoys today when we average 140 a year? The year’s almost over and we’ve not even hit a hundred? Has she lost her touch?
Ellen has posted it, that part of Gloria’s message, and the link to the full message, too, which part I repeat here:
“I warn those who seek to destabilize our government not to exploit this incident for their selfish political motives.”
Read between the lines. The message was explicit against her opponents in politics but was silent against the perpetrators of this dastardly act. READ AGAIN! This time follow the link for the full speech. Did she ever condemn the supposed bombers? But she did warn her political enemies, didn’t she?
The subconscious mind gave her away again. She cannot denounce the bombers because they belong to her cabal.
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(If you have nothing better to do, you CAN do it here. But if you have nothing better to say, put tongue in, anew.)
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Gen. Boogie Mendoza, a former Razon protege, and an "acclaimed anti-terrorist expert" (it just happened that a fire of suspicious origin, "suspicious" at least to the instinctive Policewoman Aida Fariscal, gave away "Operation Bojinka" in an Al-Qaeda bomb-making makeshift lab in Ermita leading to the arrests of Murad and '93 WTC Bomber Youzef).
