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Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Back To Square One?

Nov. 8, 2007

First Update (10:09 pm)

I got this from Newsbreak, click to view the large graphic image:
click to view large image

I was reading Manolo Quezon's latest post in Current: "Exhibit A & Exhibit B" wherein he still linked my preceeding post, "Bomb? What Bomb?", also in this blog and I was later pointed to Joey Allarilla's @play blog also in Inquirer's Blogs which had this very cool Animated 3D Walk-through of the Glorietta basement I saw in the news last night.

Online Videos by Veoh.com


*************

Nov. 7, 2007

Back To Square One?






Pictures (Courtesy of Inquirer.net): 1. The delivery bay after the blast; 2. A view of the atrium damage (Note the trap door leading to the basement); 3. The curved beam; 4. The diesel tank's top

Main Post:

Just as the PNP investigators looked comfortable with the gas-mixture theory based on the stories carried by media the past days, Ayala comes out with its own findings and the whole investigation is back to square one.

What the investigating team thought was a solid ground that their conclusions can stand on are, at the very least, shaky and could come down crumbling anytime.

The Israeli "expert"

First, David Nevo, the Israeli security contractor whom PNP had called a "security and anti-terror expert" due to his being a retired police chief superintendent and "over 25 years of experience in security and anti-terror management" wouldn't file a report because he was there merely as an "independent observer". And truly so, he had one look at the basement and his VISUAL inspection was enough for him to conclude it was a gas blast.

Looking at his statements, Nevo, the managing director of Coral Integrated Security Systems Ltd (Coraliss) merely mouthed the lines that gas blast theory proponents would have wanted him to say and then they planed him back to Israel. Nothing he said in the interview could be considered crucial, merely vague descriptions of a methane explosion I doubt he has even experienced investigating one like it. But if it were a terrorist bomb, I would definitely seek his wisdom, coming from probably the "most bombed" country in the world.

The Australian Forensic Police's report

Next, the PNP's resource persons from the Australian Forensic Police did prepare a 13-page report but again, it was inconclusive as to the source of the blast. What they did say was that there were several "potential sources" like sulphur dioxide, methane, ammonia and diesel fumes. They also confirmed my analysis posted in my last post that the diesel inside the tank could not have caused it. They said, "there was insufficient damage to the tank to indicate it as being the source of the explosion". Phil. Daily Inquirer quoted the report:

" 'It is possible that the ignition source was remote from the area of greatest fuel build-up. From the detailed scene examination, physical evidence, blast damage effects, and background information provided, it appears the explosion has occurred in the basement of Glorietta 2 as a result of an explosive fuel-air mixture being initiated by unknown means,' the report also showed."

"To fully determine the cause of the blast, Australian experts also advised its counterparts to: examine the floor area of basement to determine the extent of the damage; engage independent appropriate engineers/experts to examine machinery including septic pump, exhaust system, diesel tank, control panel switches and pumps; examine CCTV footage; examine maintenance records of Glorietta 2; ensure that all relevant witness statements would be collected and evaluated for significant information; examine post-mortem reports, including location of deceased, among others."


What they are actually telling the PNP is, "Get your asses in there and find the evidence!" The Australians, like the Israeli, however, were leaning towards the gas-blast theory and ruled out bombing due to the absence of traces of "bomb parts". We all know that the female chemist from the PNP Crime Lab announced in front of the National Security Council in Camp Crame that RDX or Royal Demolition Explosive, the main component of cyclotrimethylene-trinitramine (C3H6N6O6) or C-4, was found during the swab tests conducted in the same day of the blast. When the Aussies mentioned "bomb parts" I would assume they meant those other than RDX.

So for the whole of last week, the PNP had been saying they have reached a conclusion based on their investigations, as CONFIRMED by the foreign experts and even announced that they will be filing their report on November 6 because they were confident they were convincing enough they had the concurrence of foreigners. They were zeroing in on methane since the Australians have debunked the possiblity of the diesel tank causing the havoc.

Ayala's experts

Now, over the weekend, the killjoy Jimmy Ayala came out with his own experts: Dr. Stephen Etheridge, the biogas expert from the UK's Science Council and Burgoynes, a forensic prober/consultancy and conducted a presscon at the Intercon Hotel. Aided by an AV presentation, Ayala refutes the last plausible theory the PNP seemed ready to blame on them and charge them with.

Dr. Etheridge proved many of my suspicions and arguments right. One, that the sewage pit could not have produced the amount of methane gas needed to cause that kind of damage to Glorietta 2. Aquaeous sewage does not produce methane in the same volume as a dewatered sludge tank which has greater concentrations of fecal solids.

As I also mentioned in my post, a gas leak would have been easily detected as hydrogen sulfide is a highly-toxic gas and emitted foul odor that should have been noticed by Ayala maintenance people, the guards, stall owners (Starbucks, with a few smoker's tables outside, I believe, is just nextdoor) or even just by passers-by. This was consistent, too, with Dr. Etheridge's report.

He also concurred with my argument that the area could have been well ventilated since there was a diesel generator in the room.

My early hunch against the methane theory actually started when the PNP announced the blast was the product of a gas mixture accumulated in the basement, just A DAY after the NSC presscon where cops reported RDX was found. In the process, they forgot that they said they cannot yet enter the basement as it was flooded and smelled like crap. If that were so, how did they arrive at such a conclusion? Cuz the caucasians say so?

But another superior human being (yes, I meant caucasian) has refuted the diesel + methane cause of the blast more convincingly.

My suggestion in Ellen's blog that inspecting the deformed reinforcement bars encased in concrete as to bend direction and close inspection at the points of fracture will tell the blast direction and magnitude of the blast wave, was apparently done by Ayala's experts and they concluded that these were "consistent with the damage usually created by a bomb."

Ayala and Dr. Etheridge likewise corrected many wrong impressions, like that of the police's, that the sewage pit was a septic tank, similar to what our houses have. It was, after all, simply a transfer tank that automatically pumps out to the city sewers once a certain level is reached. (Whaaat? I thought large establishments like Glorietta or the whole Ayala Center are supposed to have Sewage Treatment Plants? Hmmm...) The transfer pit is no bigger than a 2-door fridge standing 6'6" tall. According to Ayala, and as shown in their presentation, the 1.5 x 1.2 x 2.25mtrs pit pumps out sewage 2 to 3 times daily.

No way can methane-producing organisms create enough volatile gas to even cook rice! Setting aside the possibility that the "city sewer" or a central sewage system serving the whole Ayala Center was responsible for leaking methane back into the Ayala basement, I AM 100% CONVINCED it was NOT a methane gas explosion! If the converse were true, the ball now lies in Mayor Binay's court, which could explain why Binay now wants an independent investigation.

Further, Dr. Etheridge explained, "You need a tank about 3 to 5 times larger than the one that is there. These tanks are emptied out and they are exposed to oxygen. The area is also well-ventilated".

Other important details coming from the Ayala experts:

-Methane, one of two components of biogas, could not have been produced since it takes microorganisms eight to 10 days to multiply to sufficient quantities. The water in the basement sump pits was discharged to the city sewers "several times a day". (That is new.)

-The accumulation of biogas, which is 20 percent less dense than air, was unlikely “because it would have vented via the large open stairwell leading to the delivery bay that is open to the street". (I've said so.)

-It is unlikely that a gas explosion in the basement would have caused the severe damage observed in the loading bay area because at the time of the incident, the loading bay was open to the street. (Just as I had figured)

-The diesel tank suffered only "minor secondary damage" with its roof deforming and forming a weld, which is "entirely consistent with it having been caused as the result of the primary explosion," thus overpressure in the diesel tank "could not have caused the damage". (Didn't I say that?)

-Upon testing by a major oil company, the "flash point" - or the temperature required for the combustion of vapor from a liquid - of the diesel fuel in the day tank was found to be normal at 76 degrees Celsius and within specification.
Ayala also showed a three-dimensional rendering of the basement where the blast was believed to have originated, and pointed out the locations of the two sump pits in one corner and the diesel tank a few meters away. (It is consistent with my theory.)

-Ayala said the second pump was for "backup, in case the main pump malfunctioned". (I believe this is standard.)

-The experts also said that the blast moved 14 meters of the mall's structure. The movement, they said, is equivalent to 270 tons of force or the lifting of 270 vehicles, which is impossible if it was indeed a gas explosion. (I'd like to see the formulae and the computations!)

-The ALI president did not say if the ALI-commissioned team found bomb fragments at the blast site. (Cleaned?)

-"We could not say conclusively whether or not there is a bomb crater," Ayala said, adding that ALI's hired experts had said the twisting of steel reinforcements in the building was consistent with damage usually caused by a bomb. (I thought the stair well leading to the trap door at the lobby WAS a crater? How about the "hole" in PNP's Presentation 2?)

-NBI's Romulo Asis said the NBI probe was far from over because materials like electrical devices recently retrieved from the basement were still under analysis. (One funny thing here, they were checking the submersible pump if it created the spark that could have ignited methane gas, if it was SUBMERGED during operation, how could it ignite gas?)

-Emilio Tumbocon, president of Ayala Property Management Corp., (Ayala's in-house building management team) said, "The fuse box shown in the papers today is the fuse box of the old jack pump, which has already been decommissioned. It is not used anymore and was replaced by a new jack pump". "It wasn’t connected. That was a fuse box from old equipment," he said, adding that it was not near the diesel tank. (The pictures showed that.)

-Asked to comment on reports that the Philippine Bomb Data Center had discovered the center of the explosion and found a "curve" in a beam that may indicate a bomb, Ayala said: "We were at the site Sunday, and we observed the beam in question.” “We understand that authorities are looking at this very carefully and we would encourage them to continue this line of investigation," he said.

Trillanes' witness comes forward

A certain Ronald Ramos a.k.a. Abdul Rackham who claims to be a former member of Manila-based terror group Rajah Solaiman Movement to ABS-CBN's Jay Ruiz that he worked with a group of soldiers and civilians under National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales and pointed to the group as the ones responsible for the Glorietta Tragedy. According to the ABS-CBN report,
The release of the ALI-commissioned probe report came alongside the revelation made by a man who reportedly fed information to Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV regarding the government's alleged role in the blast."

"The witness identified himself as Ronald Ramos alias Abdul Rackham, a former member of the Manila-based terror group the Rajah Solaiman Movement."

"The witness told ABS-CBN News correspondent Jay Ruiz that he surrendered to the government and worked for a special operations group of National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales along with members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines-National Capital Region Command (AFP-NCRCom) from 2004-2006."

"He claimed that his job was to monitor a number of malls in Metro Manila, including the Glorietta shopping complex."

" 'Tinitignan ko ang security sa Glorietta, sabi ko sa report pinaka-mahina ang security sa Glorietta (I monitored the security of Glorietta and reported that it had the weakest),' Ramos said."

"While admitting he has no solid-proof evidence, Ramos is convinced the surveillance job is linked to the Glorietta blast."

" 'Sila 'yun... Para gumawa ng gulo (It’s them… to start chaos),' he added."

"Ramos also admitted that he monitored the movements of 34 activists. Three of the subjects, including Sherilyn Cadapan of the University of the Philippines, were eventually abducted."

" 'Ginawa ko, sinusundan ko siya mula eskwelahan hanggang bahay (I followed her from school to her home),' he said."

"Gonzales, meanwhile, denied Trillanes's allegations. The security adviser said he will no longer comment on the issue."


Conclusion

With the diesel theory satisfactorily disproved many times and now it appears the methane gas from the Glorietta sump pit theory is headed towards the same direction, the only remaining possibilitites left are:

-methane gas leaked into the basement by the city sewer or a central sewage system that serviced the cluster of buildings in the immediate surroundings;

-another non-nitrate based gas intentionally leaked into the basement and subsequently ignited ;

-a terrorist attack from either side.

Which one is it?

***********

.

Labels: , , ,

23 Comments:

At 1:09 PM, November 07, 2007, Blogger stuart-santiago said...

you are so right, back to square one. i always wondered how credible foreign experts' findings could be, given that the australians admitted how much more investigation had to be done, esp. with regard to the flooded basement floor. and why, even if it was indeed a gas explosion, the police investigators and palace functionaries were so quick to conclude that it was therefore an accident, as if it could not have been orchestrated/engineered. more and more it seems like a job to discredit the ayalas and makati mayor binay, both super-critical of the arroyo administration.

 
At 1:37 PM, November 07, 2007, Blogger Tet said...

OFF TOPIC
You say: "Need a fund manager? Call me."
I also spend a lot of time on the net. Please drop me a line, I want to show you something.

 
At 6:26 PM, November 07, 2007, Blogger AdB said...

Official foreign forensic investigators who are on loan will always have "reserve clauses" in their reports until they're thoroughly done with their investigations.

Am certain that's how these Aussie and FBI investigators wrote theirs.

Question now is how far is Gloria going to go? Is she prepared to go head on with the Ayalas? Would be good to watch them hit each other hard.

 
At 1:08 AM, November 08, 2007, Blogger cvj said...

Tongue, thanks for the enlightening post, i was eagerly waiting for your follow-up.

One thing that ocurred to me that i find odd with the gas deflagration hypothesis. If it was a indeed a 'big fart', why did the methane not go out via the stairwell and instead blast a hole through the floor? It's the equivalent of a person farting through his navel and not via the usual exit point.

 
At 6:30 AM, November 08, 2007, Blogger Tongue's Wrath said...

stuart-santiago,
Thanks, enlightened one, hahah. Your observation, that the "accident" could have been engineered is one of the 3 remaining plausible explanations of the blast which, I concur, is perfectly valid.

But as you've always said, the Ayalas have been very critical of this government, I don't recall any event where the Ayalas manifested such.

I know though that their Zobel cousins, specifically Iñigo who stood by his friend Col. Ariel Querubin during the stand-off at the Marines HQ and was also named by ex-Amb. Roy Señeres as one of the 2 bizmen (the other one was FF Cruz' son) who were in a meeting, according to police, to destabilize gov't. Other than these incidents, I've not heard the Ayalas being involved in destab I even thought they were major allies of the Palace.

Can you help me with my ignorance on this?

 
At 1:40 PM, November 08, 2007, Blogger mschumey07 said...

Since day 1, the PNP has been trying its best to put the blame on someone else. The only question is who will benefit most from the blast?

Stuart's theory is one way to look at it and the other is the illegal occupant of the fortress by the murky river.

 
At 4:27 PM, November 08, 2007, Blogger stuart-santiago said...

the ayalas, who are major movers of the makati business club, helped install arroyo in edsa 2001, but in 2005 when the hello-garci scandal exploded, they were squarely behind dinky soliman's and cory aquino's call for gma's resignation. in 2006 they were also quite vocal against gloria's chacha attempts. more recently, just before the glorietta blast, they wanted an investigation into the palace party lootbags. and when the glorietta blast happened, the mbc was the first to go on anc, that very afternoon, and call for an independent probe, suggesting that it was a ploy of the arroyo administration to divert attention from the zte and payola scandals. no, not destab. just super- critical.

 
At 11:03 PM, November 08, 2007, Blogger Tongue's Wrath said...

tet,
You can put it here, or if you want I'll ask Ellen to give you my email. You're registered there as MrG, right?

I just don't want my inbox pestered by brigaders so I'm not giving out my email addy.

 
At 11:54 PM, November 08, 2007, Blogger Tongue's Wrath said...

adb,
The Israeli was a mere observer, the Aussies incomplete, the Feds silent. It's still the locals who will figure this out after all.

One thing I'm sure of, these guys will be monitoring the investigations cuz they have been learning lot from "our" terrorists especially new bomb-types or strategies, which were carried out in the successful past attacks, were first tested and discovered here. Remember pipe bombs, Josefa Apartments, PAL flight to Tokyo, manuscripts of 9/11 execution, etc.

*********

cvj,
You're absolutely right, if you will look at the layout, the sump pits are in one end and the old stairwell in the other. The concrete slab covering what used to be the floor opening of the old stairwell was blown 14 meters away according to both sides. 270 metric tons of push, according to the Ayala report.

But even if the basement had been filled with gas at the maximum concentration of 14%, the equivalent calorific value of methane for the size of the basement would be just around 45 liters of diesel. Of course we have seen cinema blasts using DRUMS of the more potent gasoline and never does any come close to the Glorietta damage. Check this link to download the pdf file of Dr. Etheridge's "assessment of methane"

Next, it is near to impossible that the biogas accumulated in the far corner, behind the diesel tank, without first escaping upwards through the service stairs. Methane is a lighter-than-air gas.

Methane doesn't fit.

************

mschumey07,
Of course you blame everyone else if you are party to a crime, heheh.

************

stuart,
Oh I see. Thanks.

 
At 10:56 AM, November 09, 2007, Blogger AdB said...

Wow! Stuart-Santiago's info re "just before the glorietta blast, they wanted an investigation into the palace party lootbags." is one hell of a revelation.

I haven't seen any write up or reporting on line about this though.

Incredible! If true, there is your motive.

 
At 1:21 PM, November 09, 2007, Blogger stuart-santiago said...

adb:
here's the link: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/
inquirerheadlines/nation/
view_article.php?article_id=95575
"Big business seeks probe of cash gifts". oct. 18 thursday mbc exec director albert lim said in a tv interview that the presidential anti-graft commission should investigate the matter. oct 19 friday morning, realizing that the pagc would not be impartial, lim called for an independent body to conduct a formal inquiry, preferably headed by someone like chief justice artemio panganiban. friday afternoon, the blast.

 
At 4:53 PM, November 10, 2007, Blogger Ellen said...

Tongue, it's good that you are following this closely.

The technical aspects are too much for my unscientific mind but I'm interested in seeing the truth of this tragedy.

 
At 12:04 AM, November 11, 2007, Blogger Tongue's Wrath said...

stuart,
All the while I thought among the Zobels, it was only Enzo who was behind the creation of MBC. A check with their website proved that the Ayalas were very much involved too, with Don Jaime Zobel de Ayala included in the Board of Advisers of the founding members.

Thanks for the info.

 
At 12:24 AM, November 11, 2007, Blogger Tongue's Wrath said...

Ellen,
Fortunately, as more details and evidences are unearthed, outright lies and wild spins are easily exposed. I'm sure many of those directly involved are reading the blogs.

The day we put our guards down will be the day they will sneak in to publish their version of the "truth".

I think I can't afford not to see this through. I've wagered my credibility on the posts I put here, I'm happy though the results coming out are proving me right.

Btw, did you see in the news the recreation of the blast by the UP Profs and LPG Marketers? The results were consistent with my hypotheses: there was pre-blast odor, post-blast smoke and fire, and the blast had no effect on liquid diesel.

 
At 1:06 PM, November 11, 2007, Blogger Ellen said...

This is very educational for me.

 
At 6:58 AM, November 12, 2007, Blogger Tongue's Wrath said...

Ellen,
Me, too.

 
At 7:20 AM, November 22, 2007, Blogger HILLBLOGGER said...

So I take it, there's been nothing conclusive?

Are the Ayalas still doing their own thing on the side, i.e., in house investigation?

 
At 7:54 AM, November 24, 2007, Blogger Tongue's Wrath said...

hillblogger,
Ayala did not need the services of those foreign investigators as a matter of fact. They have in their roster top engineers operating their huge sewage plants. But they saw the need because it has gone down to that colonial mentality thing where foreigners with several degrees affixed to their names are believed more than whatever the locals have to say.

The police has again announced its "final" findings (is this the second or third "final" findings?) Wednesday and I see it as another trial balloon to see if their shit regarding the Batasan blast has been accepted by people.

Credibility building, eh? But the report won't be available until two weeks daw! Hahaha!

Explosive gas? Nah, just hot air!

 
At 10:36 AM, January 23, 2008, Blogger Tongue's Wrath said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 10:45 AM, January 23, 2008, Blogger Tongue's Wrath said...

I posted this comment today on Manolo Quezon's blog entry entitled Conspiracy Theories:

TonGuE-tWisTeD :

Some have forgotten the facts about Glorietta already. Let me refresh you with some.

1. The PNP announcement that the blast was caused by methane came on a Saturday - a day after the lady chemist produced the RDX findings in the top-level briefing. But they forgot that it wasn’t until Tuesday or Wednesday that they were able to enter the basement because it was flooded and smelled like crap.

2. The Aussies have discounted the possibility of diesel causing the damage. They also urged the PNP to look for more evidence. At that point when the Australians submitted their findings, even they were unsure of the cause.

3. The Israeli was merely an observer and didn’t need to produce a report. In local lingo, he was just “pala” or “palakpak boy”. Whatever he said didn’t carry any weight at all, any 4-year old who knows Google and can type could explain better. He also didn’t have access to the basement.

4. The slab that covered the unserviced stairway was lifted several meters (some say 14mtrs) and the force required was 270 tons according to Dr. Etheridge. That data can be checked and disputed if wrong. Nobody did. Now, based on floor plans and the equipment listed, the volume of free space in the basement, if filled with 14% methane, the calorific value of the gas would only be equivalent to 45 liters of diesel. Not enough to create the damage.

5. Manuel Buencamino’s blog carried the news that a week before the Glorietta havoc, the Dept. of Foreign Affairs building in Pasay City experienced an explosion which investigators claim was caused by - dyandyaraaan! - methane gas. Two methane explosions in a week makes it common therefore?

6. The properties of methane are listed in Dr. Etheridge’s report. But I’d like to add that methane dissolves at the rate of 26mg per liter of water. The sump pit is basically diluted with water at a highly-disproportionate mix. A six feet six inches high fridge is a comparable size of the pit. Even filling it up with pure shit won’t produce enough methane in days. Further, by the slow rate with which the gas was produced, there could have been several opportunities that arcing from a switch or a motor could trigger an explosion, albeit a small fart compared to the damage. Between 5% and 14% (some say 15%)of methane accumulation (which is the ONLY explosive range), I don’t find it plausible that the methane could be triggered precisely (and accidentally)when air-gas mixture was at its most potent! Static electricity, for example, which was produced by the aircon ducts in the service area reception should have ignited the gas when it was a mere 5%, isn’t it?

These and those by the Malaysian expert, plus many other facts you can read in my blog, jester’s and DJB’s (can’t remember the others). I suggest you read all these and make your own conclusion.

January 23rd, 2008 at 10:23 am

 
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